FPL DECISIONS, SOLVED BY MATH.
We process every touch, shot, and pass to find the players who are statistically due to haul. No gut feelings. Just proven probability.
The Problem: Players Get Lucky, Then Blank
Axiom separates player skill from random luck. We predict who's due to haul (unlucky + skilled) vs who's about to blank (lucky variance).
Built on Bayesian statistics · Exponential decay weighting · Verified on every prediction
The Underperformer
FWDGOALS
2
XG
6.4
PTS
48
Δ
-4.4
High-volume shooter suffering from bad variance. The model predicts regression to the mean.
The Overachiever
MIDGOALS
5
XG
1.2
PTS
72
Δ
+3.8
Finishing is unsustainable (300% over xG). Points output expected to collapse.
Axiom Hero Pick
SYSTEM: LIVE
Morgan Rogers
Aston Villa
Expected Pts
32.70
VAPM
30.70
Final Score
29.16
OPTValue Trend (5-Game Evolution)
Generated: 17 Feb 2026, 21:53 UTC
AXIOM V1.0
Live Signals
Updated every 30 minutes from the official FPL API
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Plain English for a quick read. Show the maths if you want to see exactly how the signal was calculated.
The Premium Drought
A premium striker's scoring drought is just noise. His shot volume in the six-yard box has increased by 15% since a tactical pivot. The goals are coming — and when they do, it'll be a haul.
The Midfield Trap
A midfielder's numbers look elite on the surface, but the underlying structure is collapsing. A total scoring regression is predicted within 3 weeks. Sell high before the market corrects.
The Defensive Edge
Forget clean sheets. This defender earns points completely independent of his goalkeeper. Bonus magnets, set-piece threats, and passing volume make him a systemic edge.
Every signal on this site has both views available. Switch at any time — the data behind them is the same either way.
The maths behind the signals
The models this tool uses are built on established football statistics research. These are the questions that explain how and why the signals are calculated.
Based on established football statistics research · Formulas shown exactly as implemented