Scientific Authority

Track Record

How accurate are our signals? Every prediction, verified.

Live Track Record

1000 verified predictions across 7 gameweeks. Brier Skill Score: +9.5%

Haul threshold: ≥8 pts (μ=3.5, σ=3.3)

Model Score

0.145

Lower = better

Baseline Score

0.160

Naive xP model

Skill Score

+9.5%

Outperforms baseline

Sample Size

1000

7 GWs

Prediction Accuracy

Points near the diagonal line = well-calibrated predictions

Perfect calibration (45°)

Axiom Alpha (size = sample count)

How the model score breaks down into calibration, discrimination, and base difficulty

Calibration

0.0295

Lower = better calibrated

Discrimination

0.0010

Higher = better at separating outcomes

Base Difficulty

0.1168

Fixed for the dataset

VOLATILITY_WATCH

avg Δ: 0.39

945

HOLD

avg Δ: 0

TRAP

avg Δ: 2.05