The Football Anomaly

Man City currently sits 1st in the Premier League, but their expected points (xPTS) model places them 4th. They have scored 13 goals from 10.8 xG and conceded 5 from 7.2 xG against. The variance of +5.9 points suggests they are converting chances at an unsustainable rate.

Small-sample notice: With only 5 matches played, research indicates over 60% of short-term xG deviation is stochastic variance. Early-season hauls frequently compress toward the mean as the fixture list balances.

Fulham currently sits 19th in the Premier League, but their expected points (xPTS) model places them 13th. They have scored 5 goals from 7.8 xG and conceded 8 from 9.1 xG against. The variance of -4.1 points suggests they are creating better chances than their results show.

Small-sample notice: With only 5 matches played, research indicates over 60% of short-term xG deviation is stochastic variance. Early-season hauls frequently compress toward the mean as the fixture list balances.

Man Utd currently sits 12th in the Premier League, but their expected points (xPTS) model places them 3rd. They have scored 8 goals from 10.3 xG and conceded 8 from 6.8 xG against. The variance of -4.1 points suggests they are creating better chances than their results show.

Small-sample notice: With only 5 matches played, research indicates over 60% of short-term xG deviation is stochastic variance. Early-season hauls frequently compress toward the mean as the fixture list balances.

Newcastle currently sits 9th in the Premier League, but their expected points (xPTS) model places them 18th. They have scored 9 goals from 5.3 xG and conceded 9 from 9.1 xG against. The variance of +3.6 points suggests they are converting chances at an unsustainable rate.

Small-sample notice: With only 5 matches played, research indicates over 60% of short-term xG deviation is stochastic variance. Early-season hauls frequently compress toward the mean as the fixture list balances.

Nott'm Forest currently sits 13th in the Premier League, but their expected points (xPTS) model places them 5th. They have scored 4 goals from 7.5 xG and conceded 5 from 4.8 xG against. The variance of -3.8 points suggests they are creating better chances than their results show.

Small-sample notice: With only 5 matches played, research indicates over 60% of short-term xG deviation is stochastic variance. Early-season hauls frequently compress toward the mean as the fixture list balances.

Bournemouth currently sits 17th in the Premier League, but their expected points (xPTS) model places them 11th. They have scored 6 goals from 6.8 xG and conceded 8 from 7.0 xG against. The variance of -3.8 points suggests they are creating better chances than their results show.

Small-sample notice: With only 5 matches played, research indicates over 60% of short-term xG deviation is stochastic variance. Early-season hauls frequently compress toward the mean as the fixture list balances.

Sunderland currently sits 14th in the Premier League, but their expected points (xPTS) model places them 9th. They have scored 6 goals from 9.8 xG and conceded 10 from 8.7 xG against. The variance of -3.7 points suggests they are creating better chances than their results show.

Small-sample notice: With only 5 matches played, research indicates over 60% of short-term xG deviation is stochastic variance. Early-season hauls frequently compress toward the mean as the fixture list balances.